NR ADXR
AU Ferguson,N.M.; Donnelly,C.A.; Woolhouse,M.E.J.; Anderson,R.M.
TI The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics.
QU Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 1997 Jul 29; 352(1355): 803-38
PT journal article
AB Mathematical model that describe the key processes determining the pattern of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in British cattle are derived that allow for infection from feed as well as maternal and direct horizontal transmission. Heterogeneous susceptibility classes are also incorporated into the analysis. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate parameters and to obtain confidence intervals from available experimental and epidemiological data. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and distributional assumptions is presented. Additional validation is provided by fitting the model to independent data collected in Northern Ireland. Model estimates and predictions based on BSE case data for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, together with their implications, are reviewed, and future research priorities discussed.
MH Age Distribution; Age Factors; Animal; Animal Feed; Cattle; Disease Transmission, Horizontal; Disease Transmission, Vertical; Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform/*epidemiology/*transmission; Female; Great Britain; Likelihood Functions; *Models, Biological; Northern Ireland; Risk Factors; Sensitivity and Specificity; Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
AD Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK
SP englisch
PO England