NR ALWW
AU Valleron,A.J.; Boelle,P.Y.; Will,R.; Cesbron,J.Y.
TI Estimation of epidemic size and incubation time based on age characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom
QU Science 2001 Nov 23; 294(5547): 1726-8
KI Science. 2001 Nov 23;294(5547):1663-4. PMID: 11721038
PT journal article
AB The size of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic in the United Kingdom is a major public health concern and a subject of speculation. The cases are young (mean age = 28). Assuming that the risk of developing the disease in susceptible exposed subjects decreases exponentially with age after age 15, that all infections occurred between 1980 and 1989, and that the distribution of the incubation period is lognormal, we estimate that the mean duration of the incubation period is 16.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.4 to 23.2] and that the total number of cases will be 205 (upper limit of the 95% CI: 403).
MH Adolescent; Adult; Age Distribution; Age Factors; Age of Onset; Animal; Cattle; Child; Child, Preschool; Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome/*epidemiology/mortality/transmission; Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology; Great Britain/epidemiology; Human; Incidence; Infant; Models, Biological; Prevalence; Probability; Risk; Time Factors
AD Epidemiology and Information Sciences, INSERM U444, CHU Saint-Antoine, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie et Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, 27 rue Chaligny, 75012 Paris, France.
SP englisch
PO USA