NR ANWO
AU Allinger,H.J.; Bahle,M.
TI Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE): A Study on the Probability that British Cattle will Suffer from this Illness at a Specific Age
OT Bovine spongiforme Enzephalopathie (BSE) - Eine Bemerkung zur altersspezifischen Erkrankungswahrscheinlichkeit britischer Rinder
QU Zeitschrift für Ernährungsökologie 2001; 2: 88-93
IA http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/erno2001.07.024
AB
If cattle have reached a certain minimum age, which age has yet to be conclusively determined, they could be affected with BSE at any time. The probability that this disease may occur at a specific age, however, cannot yet be established reliably. Human action is slaughtering animals predominently in their earlier years is responsible for the fact that there are many young animals as opposed to older ones. The present article provides a model for the age structure of cattle and eliminates the influence of this slaughtering through a simple mathematical, correctional function, so that a clear view is obtained of the probability of age-specific BSE in the animals.
This shows that British cattle demonstrate an increased probability of falling ill from BSE during their younger years and then, once again, at an older age. The circumstance that this second, age-specific probability peak has been extended one year further over the past years, however, provides a basis for performing further research. Not all attempts to understand the transmission of BSE can be reconciled with the phenomenon, the existence of which was first revealed by the aforementioned correctional function.
SP deutsch
PO Deutschland
AD Korrespondenzautor: Dipl.-Volkswirt: Hans-Joachim Allinger, Universität Passau, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre mit Schwerpunkt Finanzwissenschaft, Innstraße 27, D-94032 Passau; e-mail: Allinger@uni-passau.de