NR ATCR
AU Gubbins,S.; Roden,J.A.
TI Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie.
QU Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2006 Jan 16; 73(1): 17-31
PT journal article
AB By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.
IN Mittels Modellrechnungen vergleichen die Autoren die Effektivität verschieden strenger Umsetzungen des EU-Plans zur Züchtung einer Scrapie-resistenten Schafpopulation. Groß sind demnach die Unterschiede nicht, aber die Infragestellung des ganzen Programms durch die unvollständige Resistenz der vermeintlich resistenten Schafe bleiben zumindest im Abstract unerwähnt.
MH Animals; Female; Gene Flow; Genotype; Great Britain/epidemiology; Incidence; Male; Prevalence; Prions/*genetics; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Scrapie/*epidemiology/*genetics/prevention & control; Selection (Genetics); Sheep/*genetics
AD simon.gubbins@bbsrc.ac.uk, Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK; Institute for Animal Health, Compton, Newbury, Berkshire RG20 7NN, UK
SP englisch
PO Niederlande