NR ATPV
AU Maurella,C.; Ru,G.; Ingravalle,F.; Gagna,C.; Crescio,M.I.; Caramelli,M.
TI Steady decrease in the Italian BSE epidemic
QU International Conference - Prion 2005: Between fundamentals and society's needs - 19.10.-21.10.2005, Congress Center Düsseldorf - Poster Session: Pathogenesis PATH-32
PT Konferenz-Poster
AB
During the first four years, 2001 through 2004, of the Italian active surveillance of BSE more than 2.7 million rapid tests have been carried out resulting in the detection of 124 cases of BSE. Over the same period the crude annual prevalence decreased from 1.07 to 0.09 indigenous cases per 10,000 tests. Poisson regression models have been used to describe the temporal patterns underlying the Italian BSE epidemic. Moreover potential for changes in the recent trend was investigated by means of joinpoint regression models. Data on the number of tested cattle and of BSE cases between 2001 and 2004 were used. Animals were grouped into six-month age classes and the analysis was restricted to cattle over 42 months of age since no cases were identified in lower age classes. The time period has been split into monthly and two-month time-bands. Crude and age-adjusted prevalence over time were calculated as number of positive BSE detected cases per 10,000 tests carried out.
The Poisson model including age as covariate showed that there is no confounding from age into the observed decreasing trend. While age-adjusted monthly prevalences did not show any changes in the trend, joinpoint regression allowed the identification of an abrupt deceleration in the two-month prevalences by the end of the third two-month period (June 2001) of the active surveillance carried out in Italy.
The unconfounded and steady decrease in the prevalence is consistent with an overall progressive decrease in the risk, probably due to the efficacy of the risk management measures launched in Italy in the second half of the 90's. The observed change in the two-month prevalence trend might be related to the EU-wide purchase for destruction scheme (Regulation 2000/2777/EC) which ceased to apply by the end of June 2001 and led to the culling without testing of thousands of aged cattle.
This study was supported in part by a grant from the Italian Health Ministry (Ricerca corrente 2004).
IN In den ersten vier Jahren (2001-2004) mit aktiver BSE-Überwachung wurden in Italien 2,7 Millionen BSE-Schnelltests durchgeführt und 124 BSE-Fälle gefunden. Die jährliche Prävalenz sank in dieser Zeit von 1,07 auf 0,09 pro 10.000 Tests. Die Autoren sehen in der Entwicklung der italienischen BSE-Fallzahlen die Effektivität italienischer Schutzmaßnahmen ab der zweiten Hälfte der 90er Jahre und einen besonders starken Einfluß der Ende Juni 2001 durch die EU veranlassten Massenkeulung älterer Rinder ohne Testung (2000/2777/EC).
AD Cristiana Maurella, Giuseppe Ru, Francesco Ingravalle, Carla Gagna, Maria Ines Crescio, Maria Caramelli, CEA-Centro di Referenza per le Encefalopatie Spongiformi Animali, Italy
SP englisch
PO Deutschland