NR AWMV
AU Saegerman,C.; Speybrock,N.; Vanopdenbosch,E.; Wilesmith,J.W.; Berkvens,D.
TI Trends in age at detection in bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases: a useful indicator of the epidemic curve in Belgium
QU International Conference - Prion 2006: Strategies, advances and trends towards protection of society - 3.10.-6.10.2006, Torino, Italy, Lingotto Conference Centre - Poster sessions EPI-24
PT Konferenz-Poster
AB There were 118 BSE cases in Belgium before 1 January 2004. The trends in age at time of detection of the BSE cases were analyzed. This parameter was used as a predictor tool for the current stadium of the BSE epidemic curve in a country. The following indicator variables were considered: date of birth, breed, date of detection, mode of detection, monthly number and age of animals slaughtered and rendered. The trends in age at detection in function of date of birth is a very poor epidemiological indicator. The increasing of the average age of BSE cases at the time of detection is due to the decrease of cases. That appears to be a reliable indicator of the onset of a decrease in the epidemic curve in Belgium. By means of simulations using fictitious data sets compared to real data from Great Britain, a relation between the trends of age distribution at the time of detection and the stage of the epidemic curve was demonstrated. Trends in age at the time of detection of the BSE cases may be of use in those situations where absolute numbers of BSE cases cannot be determined accurately; that constitutes the originality of this epidemiological indicator.
AD C. Saegerman: Epidemiology and Risk analysis applied to Veterinary sciences, Department of Infectious and Parasitics diseases, University of Liège, B-4000 Liège, Belgium; N. Speybroeck, D. Berkvens: Department of Tropical Animal Health and Production, Institute of Tropical Medicine, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium; E. Vanopdenbosch: Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Center, B-1180 Uccle, Belgium; John W. Wilesmith: Department of Epidemiology, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom; E-mail: claude.saegerman@ulg.ac.be
SP englisch
PO Italien